British spy estimates that Putin will end in power in the coming months - this would result in a change of power

RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has only been in power for three to six months, former spy Christopher Steele estimated in a recent BBC interview. Steele based his assessment of time on “signs that (Putin’s) health is failing” and, if U.S. and British sources are right, Putin will become “incapacitated” at that time.

According to Steele, especially after the Western energy sanctions have started to bite properly, Putin’s days are “numbered”.

For weeks, there has been speculation that Putin would be seriously ill and that the power struggle in the Kremlin has already begun.

Recent appearances by the Russian president, in which he has been seen, among other things, with a blanket warming his feet or holding on to a table, have added to rumors.  In April, Putin met with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) in Moscow.
Recent appearances by the Russian president, in which he has been seen, among other things, with a blanket warming his feet or holding on to a table, have added to rumors. In April, Putin met with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) in Moscow. 

The Kremlin has denied rumors of Putin's health problems. Experts have also been stunned to draw conclusions too quickly, but the rumor has not subsided.

- Rumors say something, but the interpretation is quite impossible, says René Nyberg, who has served as Finland's ambassador to Moscow for a long time.

Nyberg does not want to comment further on speculation. However, one thing is certain of him.

- If we think about the change of power in Russia, one thing is certain. When it happens, it happens suddenly and quickly, and it’s drastic.

ONE alternative to the change of power has been the so-called palace revolution, in which the Russian ruling elite would decide to oust Putin.

However, Ilmari Käihkö, a docent in military sciences at the Swedish National Defense College, considers the realization of the palace revolution unlikely, as such would require a lot of organization and planning. According to Käihkö, Russia has several competing security bodies that would prevent a coup.

According to Käihkö, a coup launched by the people is also unlikely.

- Experts pretty much agree that Putin has set up a powerful mechanism for 20 years where a bottom-up revolution is not possible.

IF Putin died while he was president, under Russia's constitution, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin would come to power. By law, new elections should be held within three months.

Otherwise, little is known in advance about the possible posthumous time. Markku Kangaspuro, director of the Alexander Institute, says that nowhere is it defined, for example, whether there is a national mourning period or what kind of funeral Putin would receive.

- It would definitely depend on the successor. It is likely that Putin’s death would be followed by some sort of regrouping of power and power struggle among the political elite.

- It would then depend on the successor how much he would like to be branded as a successor to Putin's line. There is no constitutional or otherwise legal provision for state funerals. But no doubt Putin would get a state funeral.

It is not even known where Putin would be buried.

Four of the leaders of the Soviet Union died while still in office: Josef Stalin, Leonid Brezhnev, Yuri Andropov, and Konstantin Chernenko. Everyone got a showy, state funeral. A mourning period of 3 to 5 days was also declared for the Soviet Union. Their graves can be found in the Kremlin wall cemetery, on the edge of the Red Square.

When the current first president of Russia, Boris Yeltsin, died in 2007, he was buried in Novodevichy Cemetery in Moscow.

ACCORDING TO KANGASPURO, the prime minister would also become deputy president if the president was no longer able to do his job. It will be more complicated if the president himself does not want to relinquish power.

- I would assume that in that case, the power elite would have to make a decision to transfer power with a very broad composition and unanimity, Kangaspuro reflects.

Putin said in 2020 that he did not intend to follow Soviet leaders who died in office without leaving clear steps for a smooth change of power, The Times has reported.

"It would be very worrying to return to the situation we had in the mid-1980s when state leaders remained in power until their deaths and failed to secure the necessary conditions for a change of power," Putin said.

However, it is not known how Putin has prepared for the change of power.

IF Putin relinquished power in one way or another, it would not automatically mean that Russia would become a democracy and the war in Ukraine would end, Käihkö says.

- Such speculation has taken place since the beginning of the war. I feel like it has a lot of wishful thinking in it.

- It is hoped that there will be a lightning strike from the sky and Putin will leave the picture, and then everything will be fine.

Even if Putin disappears like magic from the patterns, there is no certainty as to who will be the successor, Käihkö recalls.

Putin's successors have been publicly hailed by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigua, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov, and Foreign Intelligence Service Chief Sergei Naryshkin. They all belong to Putin's insiders. On the other hand, the successor could also be some younger surprise name.

According to Käihkö, it is possible that Putin would be replaced by a person who is even more nationalistic and aggressive in foreign policy and that Russia could turn even more authoritarian. Then the situation could worsen not only in Ukraine but also in Finland.

- Would the situation improve or worsen? Putin is the devil we know, but we don’t know who his successor is, Käihkö ponders the consequences of the change of power.